IvyArcIvyArc
4

Cascade Hall

7yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 64

Ayr · Slater Menswear Handicap · 1m 5f 26y

#2

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Front runner who's won decisively 3 times this year (including at this course). Escapes a penalty for 21-length success at Chester 7 days ago and while that form can be taken with pinch of salt (others possibly floundered in soft ground), he should take all the beating.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Carlisle 18/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 56 · 1m6f32y Sft 116 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 56 par18/055OR 565 @ Musselburgh 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 59 · 1m7f217y Gd 120 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 59 par4 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 65 · 1m7f196y Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 65 par13/064OR 655 @ Carlisle 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 65 · 2m1f47y Gd 142 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 64 · 1m5f26y Goo 124 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 64 par13/075OR 645 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 64 · 1m7f217y Gd 124 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 64 par4 @ Musselburgh 25/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 63 · 2m2f28y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 63 par25/084OR 635 @ Haydock 04/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 63 · 1m6f Hvy 131 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 62 · 1m7f196y Goo 135 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 62 par11/095OR 62projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Chester51st1st0
2026-09-04Haydock52nd2nd0
2026-08-25Musselburgh47th6th+1
2026-07-31Musselburgh53rd3rd0
2026-07-13Ayr53rd3rd0
2026-07-04Carlisle54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/054/0725/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength88%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/05/20262nd5/287%88%+0.01
05/06/20261st1/398%100%+0.02
13/06/20263rd4/179%75%-0.04
04/07/20264th7/491%40%-0.51
13/07/20263rd9/488%60%-0.28
31/07/20263rd7/282%60%-0.22
25/08/20267th12/137%25%-0.12
04/09/20262nd8/158%86%+0.28
11/09/20261st2/189%100%+0.11