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10

Ebony Maw

9yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 54

Ayr · Slater Menswear Handicap · 1m 5f 26y

#1

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

86%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Benefited from return to positive tactics when successful in a lesser handicap here in early-July. Continued in good nick with back-to-back thirds at Hamilton, latterly beaten 2 lengths in this grade. May have to settle for minor honours in his bid for a fourth C&D victory, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Ayr 30/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 59 · 1m7f Sft 137 · below its mark30/09/2025 · OR 59 par30/096OR 596 @ Catterick 28/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 58 · 1m7f189y Sft 138 · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 58 par6 @ Musselburgh 05/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 58 · 1m7f217y Sft 138 · below its mark05/11/2025 · OR 58 par5/116OR 586 @ Catterick 08/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 57 · 1m4f13y Goo 127 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 57 par5 @ Haydock 21/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 56 · 2m45y Sft 121 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 56 par21/055OR 566 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 53 · 1m7f Sft 130 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 53 par5 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 52 · 1m5f26y Gd 127 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 52 par6/075OR 526 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 54 · 1m4f15y Goo 138 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 54 par5 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 54 · 1m5f16y Sft 126 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 54 par2/095OR 54projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Hamilton53rd3rd0
2026-08-11Hamilton63rd4th−1
2026-07-06Ayr51st1st0
2026-06-19Ayr63rd4th−1
2026-05-21Haydock54th4th0
2026-04-08Catterick67th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/098/046/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/09/20258th5/174%13%-0.61
28/10/20253rd17/255%78%+0.23
05/11/20259th15/261%0%-0.61
08/04/20267th14/126%33%+0.07
21/05/20264th11/142%40%-0.02
19/06/20263rd12/137%71%+0.35
06/07/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
11/08/20263rd8/158%71%+0.14
02/09/20263rd9/153%82%+0.29