IvyArcIvyArc
7

Furhaan

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 62

Ayr · Slater Menswear Handicap · 1m 5f 26y

#7

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has drawn a blank since handicap debut success for Ed Walker last autumn. Found his run of good form in staying handicaps coming to a halt from 4 lb out of the weights at York last time. Unlikely to be the stable's leading hope back down in trip, though does at least race off his proper mark here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength74%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Yarmouth 06/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 70 · 1m3f104y Gd 135 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 70 par6/105OR 704 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 70 · 1m4f8y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 69 · 1m4f104y Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 69 par26/044OR 694 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 67 · 1m3f15y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 67 par4 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 65 · 1m7f196y Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 65 par27/064OR 654 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 63 · 2m56y Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 63 par4 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 63 · 2m56y Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 63 par24/074OR 634 @ Musselburgh 25/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 63 · 2m2f28y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 63 par4 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 62 · 2m56y GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 62 par6/094OR 62projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York49th8th+1
2026-08-25Musselburgh44th3rd+1
2026-07-24York43rd2nd+1
2026-07-11York42nd1st+1
2026-06-27Chester45th4th+1
2026-05-17Hamilton47th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/1017/0524/076/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength45%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/10/20255th4/179%43%-0.36
18/04/202611th25/10%9%+0.09
26/04/20269th28/10%0%0.00
17/05/20267th33/10%33%+0.33
27/06/20265th12/137%33%-0.04
11/07/20262nd20/10%88%+0.88
24/07/20263rd14/126%83%+0.57
25/08/20264th15/261%63%+0.02
06/09/20269th9/153%27%-0.25