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2

Junkyard Dog

4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 68

Ayr · Slater Menswear Handicap · 1m 5f 26y

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair winner in Ireland. Built on an encouraging Carlisle second to get off the mark for current yard at Southwell last month. Shaped as though ready for this step back up in trip when 3¾ lengths fourth in a slightly higher grade at Newcastle (1¼m) latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Cartmel 25/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 2m1f46y Gd 152 · HIGHER CLASS25/0844 @ Musselburgh 28/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m7f124y GS 156 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Newcastle 15/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 96 · 2m4f62y Goo 149 · below its mark15/01/2026 · OR 96 par15/015OR 965 @ Carlisle 16/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 93 · 2m3f61y Sft 152 · below its mark16/02/2026 · OR 93 par5 @ Newcastle 31/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 88 · 2m190y Goo 146 · below its mark31/03/2026 · OR 88 par31/035OR 885 @ Carlisle 09/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 70 · 1m3f39y Goo 135 · below its mark09/06/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Carlisle 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 67 · 1m3f39y Gd 149 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 67 par4/075OR 676 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 65 · 1m3f24y Std 135 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 68 · 1m2f42y Std 128 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 68 par3/095OR 68projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Newcastle54th4th0
2026-08-06Southwell61st2nd−1
2026-07-04Carlisle52nd2nd0
2026-06-09Carlisle59th9th0
2026-03-31Newcastle57th7th0
2026-02-16Carlisle56th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0816/024/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength83%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/08/20254th10/147%50%+0.03
28/11/20255th11/142%43%+0.01
15/01/202612th28/10%27%+0.27
16/02/20266th12/137%38%+0.01
31/03/20267th14/126%50%+0.24
09/06/20269th40/10%11%+0.11
04/07/20262nd25/10%75%+0.75
06/08/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
03/09/20264th5/174%63%-0.11