Just Dottie
8yo Mare · 9-1 · OR 55
Ayr · Slater Menswear Handicap · 1m 5f 26y
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Perth | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Perth | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Perth | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Perth | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Musselburgh | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -9.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 23/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 64% | +0.06 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |