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6

Mr Moonshine

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 70

Ayr · Slater Menswear Handicap · 1m 5f 26y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

In good heart prior to showing improved form to get off the mark in 3-y-o handicap at Southwell (1½m) last time. A 4 lb rise probably prevents a follow up on return to open company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 30/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 7f36y Sta 13330/0655 @ Beverley 29/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 7f96y Goo 1335 @ Thirsk 06/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 66 · 7f218y Goo 128 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 66 par6/095OR 665 @ Beverley 17/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 66 · 1m100y Sft 132 · beat its mark17/09/2025 · OR 66 par5 @ Carlisle 09/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 66 · 1m1f Goo 131 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 66 par9/065OR 665 @ Hamilton 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 64 · 1m3f15y Goo 126 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 66 · 1m4f63y Goo 130 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 66 par25/075OR 665 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 66 · 1m4f23y Goo 130 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 66 · 1m4f15y Std 129 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 66 par3/095OR 66projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Southwell51st1st0
2026-08-13Beverley53rd3rd0
2026-07-25Chester53rd3rd0
2026-07-11Hamilton52nd2nd0
2026-06-09Carlisle55th5th0
2025-09-17Beverley54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0617/0925/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength66%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/06/20254th20/10%63%+0.63
29/07/20255th14/126%0%-0.26
06/09/20252nd9/153%75%+0.22
17/09/20254th4/179%50%-0.29
09/06/20265th12/137%56%+0.19
11/07/20262nd13/266%80%+0.14
25/07/20263rd9/276%78%+0.01
13/08/20263rd9/488%50%-0.38
03/09/20261st10/382%100%+0.18