11
Off Spin
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 52
Ayr · Slater Menswear Handicap · 1m 5f 26y
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength39%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thirsk | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Redcar | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ayr | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Pontefract | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 19/07/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.37 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |