4
Ifweonlyhavelove
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 85
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 2f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | Curragh | 1 | 7th | 1st | +5 |
| 2025-09-30 | Cork | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-09-16 | Punchestown | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
Delivery trend -38.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 30/09/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 21/10/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 14% | -0.28 |