1
Mary Lois
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 89
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 2f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
74%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength68%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 4/9 | 98% | 40% | -0.58 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |