15
Southern Kiss
2yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 80
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 15-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength7%
Delivery trend -31.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.30 |