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10

A Bourbon For Toby

4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 103

Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength63%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 24/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 95 · 1m1f110y Fm 118 · below its mark24/07/2025 · OR 95 par24/07C6OR 95C6 @ Saratoga 28/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 102 · 1m1f Fm 118 · below its mark28/08/2025 · OR 102 parC0 @ Belmont At The Big A 04/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 97 · 1m3f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 97 par4/10C?OR 97C6 @ Aqueduct 13/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 100 · 1m110y Fm 121 · beat its mark13/11/2025 · OR 100 parC5 @ Keeneland 03/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 102 · 1m1f Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 102 par3/04C5OR 102C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 07/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 99 · 1m1f110y Fm 123 · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 99 parC1 @ Laurel Park 16/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 105 · 1m1f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 105 par16/05C1OR 105C5 @ Laurel Park 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 105 · 1m1f Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 105 parC6 @ Saratoga 06/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 102 · 1m1f Fm 126 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 102 par6/08C6OR 102projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-06Saratoga?2nd2nd0
2026-06-27Laurel Park?6th5th+1
2026-05-16Laurel Park?2nd-4th+5
2026-05-07Belmont At The Big A?3rd3rd0
2026-04-03Keeneland?1st0th+1
2025-11-13Aqueduct?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0713/1116/056/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength85%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/07/20253rd10/382%67%-0.16
28/08/20252nd4/179%91%+0.12
04/10/20257th16/116%0%-0.16
13/11/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
03/04/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
07/05/20263rd10/147%50%+0.03
16/05/20262nd12/137%75%+0.38
27/06/20266th9/488%29%-0.60
06/08/20262nd11/486%89%+0.03