13
Asbury Park
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 100
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
78%
Place Prob
46%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength75%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 3rd | +5 |
| 2025-10-04 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | -5th | +5 |
| 2025-09-01 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength57%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2024 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 56% | -0.34 |
| 06/06/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 18/07/2025 | 6th | 11/10 | 94% | 44% | -0.50 |
| 01/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |