4
Ciao Chuck
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 105
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#12
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength5%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 23/02/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 29/03/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 24/01/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 28/02/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |