5
Daunt
7yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 102
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#14
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength44%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 12/10/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 30/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 23/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 14/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 18/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |