Discreet Dancer
4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 99
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#13
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 28/02/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 06/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |