Early Adopter
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 103
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 1st | +5 |
| 2025-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2024 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/09/2024 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 16/11/2024 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 78% | -0.12 |
| 08/03/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 23/04/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 31/05/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 04/07/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |