14
Emergence
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 102
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#10
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Ellis Park | BHA101 | 4th | 10th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 22% | -0.44 |
| 09/05/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 13/06/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 02/08/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 04/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 24/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 08/08/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |