Noble Confessor
4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 102
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | -4th | +5 |
| 2025-10-04 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | -4th | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 24/07/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 30/08/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 28/02/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 22% | -0.62 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 17/07/2026 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |