12
Paros
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 101
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength52%
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 24/01/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 28/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |