Rothschild
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 97
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-07-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-06-08 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-04-19 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-03-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2024 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 26/10/2024 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 17% | -0.73 |
| 01/12/2024 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 10% | -0.51 |
| 01/03/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 19/04/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 55% | -0.31 |
| 08/06/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 26/07/2025 | 9th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |