Sherlock's Jewel
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 96
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 31/08/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 02/11/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 22/02/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/04/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |