Write Off Jerry
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 103
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-06 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 8th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 17/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 78% | -0.09 |
| 07/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 05/07/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 30% | -0.41 |
| 08/08/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |