1
Baeza
4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 114
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 2f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -8.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 05/04/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 03/05/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 07/06/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 26/07/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 01/11/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |