5
Banishing
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 108
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 2f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Meydan | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 01/11/2025 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 24/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 28/03/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 02/05/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |