4
Phileas Fogg
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 104
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 2f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
37%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-02-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-09-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2025 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 05/04/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 16/05/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 04/07/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 31/08/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 0% | -0.96 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |