6
Render Judgment
4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 99
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 2f
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲4
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 10.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: -4.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-05-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-03-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-01-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 10th | 16th | −5 |
| 2025-05-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 17th | 17th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/02/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 15/03/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 08/04/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/05/2025 | 17th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 03/01/2026 | 10th | 10/3 | 82% | 18% | -0.64 |
| 28/03/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |