A Little At First
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 99
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 56% | -0.10 |
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 10/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.13 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |