IvyArcIvyArc
14

Carc Brothers

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 103

Belmont Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

66%

Place Prob

37%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 1.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Fair Grounds 04/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m110y 1244/01C9C8 @ Belmont At The Big A 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 91 · 1m110y Gd 126 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 91 par23/05C8OR 91C7 @ Belmont At The Big A 26/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 97 · 1m1f110y Fm 126 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 97 par26/06C7OR 97C5 @ Saratoga 16/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 100 · 1m1f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 100 par16/08C5OR 100projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Saratoga?1st0th+1
2026-06-26Belmont At The Big A?1st2nd−1
2026-05-23Belmont At The Big A?1st3rd−2
2026-01-04Fair Grounds?1st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0123/0526/0616/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength57%

Delivery trend -21.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/01/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
23/05/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
26/06/20261st8/1597%100%+0.03
16/08/20261st1/297%100%+0.03