3
Conman
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 99
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-11-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-08-10 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-06-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength91%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2024 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 03/08/2024 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 30/08/2024 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 15/06/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 10/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 24/08/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 18/10/2025 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/11/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |