11
Smooth Breeze
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 96
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 13-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 14/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 17/07/2025 | 2nd | 1/2 | 97% | 75% | -0.22 |
| 03/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 1/1 | 95% | 33% | -0.61 |
| 16/08/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |