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Terminal Velocity

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 90

Belmont Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#11

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 04/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 6f110y Fas 1184/05C6C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 28/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 83 · 1m1f Fm 118 · beat its mark28/06/2025 · OR 83 par28/06C6OR 83C5 @ Saratoga 09/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 86 · 1m1f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 86 par9/08C5OR 86C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 11/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 94 · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 94 par11/10C5OR 94C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 01/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 94 · 1m110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 94 par1/11C5OR 94C6 @ Aqueduct 24/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 91 · 1m110y Fm 126 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 91 par24/04C6OR 91C6 @ Saratoga 16/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 90 · 1m Fm 126 · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 90 par16/08C6OR 90projClass-projected finish: 13th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Saratoga?10th10th0
2026-04-24Aqueduct?9th9th0
2025-11-01Belmont At The Big A?1st0th+1
2025-10-11Belmont At The Big A?5th4th+1
2025-08-09Saratoga?2nd1st+1
2025-06-28Belmont At The Big A?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0511/1016/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength25%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/05/20254th15/261%50%-0.11
28/06/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
09/08/20252nd12/137%89%+0.52
11/10/20255th13/266%50%-0.16
01/11/20251st20/10%100%+1.00
24/04/20269th33/10%0%0.00
16/08/202610th25/10%0%0.00