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10

The Paddock Pastor

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 92

Belmont Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Saratoga 30/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 71 · 1m3f Fm 125 · below its mark30/07/2025 · OR 71 par30/07C7OR 71C5 @ Saratoga 17/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 73 · 1m110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2025 · OR 73 parC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 13/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 82 · 1m110y Fm 124 · below its mark13/09/2025 · OR 82 par13/09C6OR 82C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 11/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 92 · 1m110y Fm 124 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 92 parC8 @ Aqueduct 29/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 93 · 7f 122 · below its mark29/11/2025 · OR 93 par29/11C8OR 93C7 @ Belmont At The Big A 02/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 81 · 1m110y Fm 126 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 81 parC7 @ Saratoga 07/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 83 · 1m110y Fm 126 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 83 par7/06C7OR 83C7 @ Saratoga 12/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 84 · 1m Fm 126 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 84 parC7 @ Saratoga 09/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 90 · 1m110y Fm 126 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 90 par9/08C7OR 90projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-09Saratoga?1st2nd−1
2026-07-12Saratoga?7th8th−1
2026-06-07Saratoga?2nd3rd−1
2026-05-02Belmont At The Big A?3rd4th−1
2025-11-29Aqueduct?7th9th−2
2025-10-11Belmont At The Big A?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0711/107/069/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength67%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/07/20256th9/153%38%-0.15
17/08/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
13/09/20257th15/261%45%-0.15
11/10/20255th12/137%50%+0.13
29/11/20257th20/10%0%0.00
02/05/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
07/06/20262nd10/147%91%+0.44
12/07/20267th13/266%45%-0.20
09/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21