1
Art Fair
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 93
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
43%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-27 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-06-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1571% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength48%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 06/04/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 08/05/2025 | 7th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 22/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 12/07/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 27/07/2025 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |