13
Disparate Impact
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 84
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-14 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-04 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-07 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1514% of fieldRange 5-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength32%
Delivery trend +11.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 83% | -0.13 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |