3
Freaky
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 90
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength73%
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2024 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 22/02/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.31 |
| 05/04/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |