Master Freud

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 87

Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y

#15

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#15

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength28%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-26	Saratoga	?	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-06-26	Belmont At The Big A	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-06-13	Belmont At The Big A	?	10th	10th	0	1.0
2026-05-15	Belmont At The Big A	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-03-27	Aqueduct	?	1st	0th	+1	5.0
2026-02-13	Aqueduct	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish15th of 150% of fieldRange 11-15 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 15th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
10/10/2025	5th	5/1	74%	33%	-0.40
07/11/2025	1st	10/1	47%	100%	+0.53
10/12/2025	5th	12/1	37%	33%	-0.04
13/02/2026	3rd	10/1	47%	71%	+0.24
27/03/2026	1st	8/1	58%	100%	+0.42
15/05/2026	6th	9/2	76%	44%	-0.32
13/06/2026	10th	13/2	66%	10%	-0.56
26/06/2026	3rd	11/2	71%	60%	-0.11
26/07/2026	9th	15/2	61%	11%	-0.49