10
Moment's Notice
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 85
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength65%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 03/01/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 55% | -0.22 |
| 15/03/2026 | 3rd | 1/2 | 97% | 33% | -0.64 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 26/04/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |