Nash Potatoes
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 82
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |
| 01/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |