Neigh Baby
3yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 86
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 30/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 09/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 05/02/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 24/05/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |