11

Sea Vista

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 93

Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength28%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 23/11/2024 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 91 · 6f110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/11/2024 · OR 91 par23/11C6OR 91C6 @ Turfway Park 29/12/2024 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 95 · 6f110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/12/2024 · OR 95 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 28/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 90 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 90 par28/11C6OR 90C6 @ Turfway Park 03/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 96 · 6f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/01/2026 · OR 96 parC6 @ Aqueduct 12/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 94 · 6f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/02/2026 · OR 94 par12/02C6OR 94C5 @ Aqueduct 07/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 97 · 7f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/03/2026 · OR 97 parC8 @ Belmont At The Big A 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 93 · 6f110y Fas 126 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 93 par2/05C8OR 93C7 @ Saratoga 19/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 95 · 7f 126 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 95 parC7 @ Saratoga 07/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 94 · 5f110y Fm 126 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 94 par7/09C7OR 94projClass-projected finish: 4th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Saratoga?5th5th0
2026-08-19Saratoga?2nd2nd0
2026-05-02Belmont At The Big A?1st2nd1
2026-03-07Aqueduct?6th4th+2
2026-02-12Aqueduct?1st0th+1
2026-01-03Turfway Park?5th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/113/012/057/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1564% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength62%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/11/20242nd5/493%90%-0.03
29/12/20245th4/998%64%-0.34
28/11/20252nd9/488%88%-0.01
03/01/20265th11/1094%64%-0.31
12/02/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
07/03/20266th7/282%29%-0.53
02/05/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
19/08/20262nd5/287%83%-0.04
07/09/20265th8/158%33%-0.25