15
Social Hour
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 92
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1536% of fieldRange 15-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 03/01/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 26/02/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 20% | -0.74 |
| 18/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |