5
Swaging
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 85
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-10 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 2-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength47%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 57% | -0.35 |
| 24/01/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 21/02/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 78% | -0.16 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 13/06/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 78% | -0.10 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |