2
Kaaterskill
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 66
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 7f
#15
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-04-24 | Aqueduct | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-01-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2024-12-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2024-11-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2024-10-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 167% of fieldRange 11-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength15%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2024 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 11/05/2024 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 20/10/2024 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 17/11/2024 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 07/12/2024 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 12/01/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 24/04/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 22/08/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |