12
Neshika
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 87
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-10-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1647% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 11/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 23/10/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 13/11/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |