16
Now Or Nevermore
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 82
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
72%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength32%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Charles Town | ? | 8th | 3rd | +5 |
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 15-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength9%
Delivery trend -71.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 29/08/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |