15
On A Summer Day
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 74
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 7f
#16
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-06-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 160% of fieldRange 9-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength16%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 28/12/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 18/01/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 07/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 02/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 04/09/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |