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8

Scorch

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 80

Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 31/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 5f110y Slo 11931/07C6C6 @ Saratoga 27/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 73 · 5f110y Fm 119 · below its mark27/08/2025 · OR 73 parC7 @ Belmont At The Big A 25/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 74 · 6f Slo 119 · below its mark25/09/2025 · OR 74 par25/09C7OR 74C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 05/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 71 · 6f Fm 119 · beat its mark05/10/2025 · OR 71 parC7 @ Belmont At The Big A 01/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 76 · 6f Fm 119 · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 76 par1/11C7OR 76C8 @ Belmont At The Big A 25/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 77 · 6f Slo 121 · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 77 parC8 @ Belmont At The Big A 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 77 · 6f Fm 121 · below its mark25/06/2026 · OR 77 par25/06C8OR 77C5 @ Saratoga 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 78 · 5f110y 122 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 78 par22/08C5OR 78projClass-projected finish: 7th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Saratoga?2nd2nd0
2026-06-25Belmont At The Big A?2nd5th−3
2026-05-25Belmont At The Big A?5th8th−3
2025-11-01Belmont At The Big A?1st3rd−2
2025-10-05Belmont At The Big A?5th6th−1
2025-09-25Belmont At The Big A?4th6th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/075/1025/0622/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +14.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/07/20253rd5/493%67%-0.27
27/08/20255th10/382%56%-0.27
25/09/20254th11/486%57%-0.28
05/10/20255th4/179%64%-0.15
01/11/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
25/05/20265th5/174%33%-0.40
25/06/20262nd12/137%86%+0.49
22/08/20262nd25/10%90%+0.90