1
Tuthilltown
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 83
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 02/11/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 13/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 82% | +0.06 |
| 09/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 04/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 55% | -0.24 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 70% | -0.04 |