Vernon Valley
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 82
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-08-27 | Saratoga | BHA75 | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-06-05 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +9.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 05/06/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 27/08/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 19/09/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 25/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 36% | -0.11 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |