4
Galveston
10yo Gelding · 10-3
Cavaillon · Prix K9sp - Monte · 1m 4f 203y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength53%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Hyeres | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Hyeres | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-03-26 | Toulouse | 5 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-02-18 | Lyon La Soie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Marseille | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-08-31 | Salon-De-Provence | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2024 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 70% | +0.07 |
| 27/03/2025 | 15th | 16/1 | 16% | 7% | -0.09 |
| 28/05/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 17/06/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 31/08/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/02/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 26/03/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |